Hydrogen buses are a financial black hole for transit agencies.

Hydrogen buses are a financial black hole for transit agencies.

We've all known for a while that hydrogen buses are more expensive to buy and run than and an electric bus, however, this assumption is actually a vast understatement.

A more appropriate example would be a financial black hole that sucks in every cent a transit agency has.

Why do I say this? 

Let's take a look at some simple math, starting with Michael Sura's excellent analysis and graphic below.

Using the following energy consumption assumptions;
BEV bus - 130kWh/100km
FCEV bus - 10.25kg/100km

We can calculate cost per 100km, based on California's current electricity and hydrogen prices of:

Electricity - 20c/kWh
Hydrogen - $36/kg

Leads us to total energy cost per 100 kilometres (62 miles):
BEV bus - $26
FCEV bus - $369

In other words, the FCEV is 14x more expensive to run in California. 

Mein Gotts.

It's not just poor thermodynamics and inefficient storage that's the problem, you need to add in the extra cost of the bus, infrastructure and more expensive maintenance. 

In fact, these numbers are best case. In California, most depots benefit from heavily subsidized solar for charging, further reducing the cost.

Hydrogen fuel stations also have subsidies, however, based on recent experience of FCEV users, you can't discount the fact that the hydrogen might not rock up at all. In other words, the H2 bus goes nowhere - just like happened to the H2 buses in Scotland.

While we know that California's grid ain't the world's sturdiest, we also know that green hydrogen will have a 3x higher impact on the grid than battery electric. 

ie If you think an EV fleet is marginal on the grid, then you absolutely CANNOT do hydrogen - unless you decide to import some polluting grey or black hydrogen from somewhere.

Which, unfortunately, it is this bait and switch game that is the hydrogen reality.

Can you think of a reason why a transit agency would want to run hydrogen FCEV buses?

Let me know your thoughts in the comments below

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